I’m looking at an old (early 20th century) hand-crank record player that was handed down to me from my great-grandmother. It’s a simple wooden box with a spring & flywheel mechanism that spins the turntable at a somewhat constant speed, a metal needle that rides in the grooves of a record disk and transmits the vibrations onto a small metal drum, and a big metal horn that focuses the sound from the drum and directs it out into the room. The power source is a human winding a spring. The sound and amplification are purely mechanical.
It’s simple. If it breaks you can take it apart, look at what’s inside, and with just a bit of tinkering you’ll probably get it to work again. If it somehow survives a few thousand years, the people from that era will look at it, figure out what is is supposed to do and with a bit of tinkering it’ll be made to work again. If one were to draw the mechanicals out on archival paper, a person from the future would be able to create a functioning replica using only late 19th/early 20th century technology.
The modern equivalent? Instead of wood and metal that with maintenance and preservation can be made to last centuries or can be recreated from scratch with a bit of work, we have disposable silicon & proprietary software – with no realistic means of preserving or maintaining over a long period of time.
For me, the non-maintainability and short life of software-centric devices affects how I view long term purchases. I shun software dependency (and internet connectivity) on devices that I expect to last more than a few years. For example - my stove, refrigerator, espresso machine, clothes washer and dryer are all more than a decade old and perfectly functional. There is no software to speak of, & the electronic and mechanical parts are still available and replaceable. Likewise, I have two cars that are approaching 15 years old and still working fine. Neither has ever had an issue with the ‘blacks boxes’ on which they are somewhat dependent, neither has had a software-related defect, and if I keep doing basic maintenance and can keep them from rusting, both could be made to last a few more decades.
On the other hand, I have two other vehicles that are new and heavily dependent on software – so much so that in three years I’ve had one recall for a software bug that would have been pretty significant had I hit it while going down the road, and one software related recall that would have toasted my 4wd transfer case had I hit the bug under the right conditions. I also have a vehicle that could potentially last decades, but because some of it’s functionality is tied into current generation smartphones, I expect that if it’s still around I’ll see those functions stop working at some point in time.
There are two factors that I consider when looking at long-term purchases. First, software is always broken. It’s broken when it ships, it’s broken every time you use it, and it’ll still be broken a decade from now when you need it to make your car or appliance work. All software has bugs, and many of those bugs are not uncovered until long after the vendor stopped maintaining the software. Decade-old bugs are found pretty regularly, and few vendors maintain the ability to re-compile and distribute updates for decade-old devices. Any functionality that is dependent on either of the major smartphone OS’s is also time-limited, as vendors simply don’t maintain software compatibility beyond a few OS versions. Nor can we expect that when Android and IoS no longer dominate the smartphone market like Blackberry and Symbian once did, that vendors will forward port functionality from decade-old devices into the then-current OS.
That effectively sets an upper limit on the long-term viability of any software-dependent device, and unlike electro-mechanical devices, the prognosis for long term repair/maintenance is pretty poor.
Like it or not, we are in an era where much of what we have will be lost - not because of rust and decay - but because we will loose the means of maintaining the software that powers the present.