Skip to main content

Janke’s Official 2009 Technology Predictions


I’ll take Anton’s bait.

Here they are:

Prediction 1: The rate of adoption of IPV6 will greatly accelerate. Estimates of the final shutdown date for the last v4 global route will be moved up from ‘when hell freezes over’ to ‘long after I’m retired’, placing the problem right next to the Year 2038 Unix timestamp problem on CTO’s priority lists.

Prediction 2: Gadget freaks will continue to search for the holy grail of multifunction all-in-one gadgets. They will continue to be disappointed.

Prediction 3: Apple will announce a new product. The product will be generate a media frenzy. Apple fans will crash servers looking for the latest product leaks or fuzzy prototype pics, and arguing via blog comments the merits of the features the product may or may not have. Unfortunately the product will be missing cut and paste.

Prediction 4: Hardware and network vendors will continue making faster and cheaper bits at a rate that matches Moore's law. Software will continue to bloat at a rate just slightly faster than Moore's law, ensuring that state of the art software running on new hardware will be slightly slower than last year.

Prediction 5: Disks will double in capacity. The average file size will double. The number of files stored will also double. All hard drives on the planet will continue to be 95% full. No progress will be made toward identifying the owner, data classification, or destruction date of the files.

Prediction 6: There will be a major security panic over some widely used but inherently insecure Internet protocol. The problem will not get resolved.

Prediction 7: Touch screen devices will continue to collect fingerprints.

Prediction 8: Sun Microsystems will rename two of their core technologies, ensuring that their loyal customers will remain confused.

Prediction 9: Web Apps will continue to be deployed with a 1:1 ratio of new web applications to applications that are vulnerable to SQL injection, XSS or XSRF. A few new applications will not be vulnerable. The rest will make up for those few with multiple vulnerabilities, keeping the overall ratio constant.

Prediction 10: Virtualization will explode, replacing hundreds of thousands of real servers with virtual servers. Unfortunately, the number of virtual servers will grow so fast that the number of physical servers will not decrease, and all datacenters on the planet will continue to have cooling and power problems.

Prediction 11: Endless e-mail threads will continue to replace mindless meetings as the preferred venue for designing, building and maintaining complex systems. After-hours meetings at local brew pubs will continue to be the actual venue for designing, building and maintaining complex systems.

And – For the bonus prediction – Someone, somewhere will figure out how to define cloud computing. The rest of us will argue over the definition for at least another year.

Notice how I didn’t stick my neck out on any of theses predictions?


  1. I love your predictions, especially the one about cloud computing ....

    To have a crack at being the one who defines it ... here is my definition

    Im checking all my site now just to make sute that Ive closed to door for SQL injection :)

    Here's my predictions I would love to know what you think

    thanks for taking the time to write an enjoyable article


Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cargo Cult System Administration

Cargo Cult: …imitate the superficial exterior of a process or system without having any understanding of the underlying substance --Wikipedia During and after WWII, some native south pacific islanders erroneously associated the presence of war related technology with the delivery of highly desirable cargo. When the war ended and the cargo stopped showing up, they built crude facsimiles of runways, control towers, and airplanes in the belief that the presence of war technology caused the delivery of desirable cargo. From our point of view, it looks pretty amusing to see people build fake airplanes, runways and control towers  and wait for cargo to fall from the sky.
The question is, how amusing are we?We have cargo cult science[1], cargo cult management[2], cargo cult programming[3], how about cargo cult system management?Here’s some common system administration failures that might be ‘cargo cult’:
Failing to understand the difference between necessary and sufficient. A daily backup …

Ad-Hoc Versus Structured System Management

Structured system management is a concept that covers the fundamentals of building, securing, deploying, monitoring, logging, alerting, and documenting networks, servers and applications. Structured system management implies that you have those fundamentals in place, you execute them consistently, and you know all cases where you are inconsistent. The converse of structured system management is what I call ad hoc system management, where every system has it own plan, undocumented and inconsistent, and you don't know how inconsistent they are, because you've never looked.

In previous posts (here and here) I implied that structured system management was an integral part of improving system availability. Having inherited several platforms that had, at best, ad hoc system management, and having moved the platforms to something resembling structured system management, I've concluded that implementing basic structure around system management will be the best and fastest path to…

The Cloud – Provider Failure Modes

In The Cloud - Outsourcing Moved up the Stack[1] I compared the outsourcing that we do routinely (wide area networks) with the outsourcing of the higher layers of the application stack (processor, memory, storage). Conceptually they are similar:In both cases you’ve entrusted your bits to someone else, you’ve shared physical and logical resources with others, you’ve disassociated physical devices (circuits or servers) from logical devices (virtual circuits, virtual severs), and in exchange for what is hopefully better, faster, cheaper service, you give up visibility, manageability and control to a provider. There are differences though. In the case of networking, your cloud provider is only entrusted with your bits for the time it takes for those bits to cross the providers network, and the loss of a few bits is not catastrophic. For providers of higher layer services, the bits are entrusted to the provider for the life of the bits, and the loss of a few bits is a major problem. These …